This Week in Bitcoin: Mania, Meltdown, and Futures Fever

Time is both constant and subjective. Technically this week passed at its usual pace, but with all eyes on today’s futures trading launch, there were spells when everything seemed to drag – not to mention lag, for anyone trying to access a bitcoin exchange at the height of the trading frenzy. Bitcoin has a tendency to go nuts mid-week. This has its upsides though, such as allowing us to file some sensible stories at the start of the week before everyone gets distracted by talk of 1,000-year bull runs.

Did we say sensible stories? Actually, scrap that, as there’s nothing remotely sensible about forking bitcoin on Christmas Day to birth a coin named Bitcoin God. While many were amused, others called blasphemy in the comments section. Later in the week, we published a guide to claiming the glut of forked coins that are incoming, for those who are so inclined. Like Bitcoin God, there’s nothing remotely sensible about Crypto Kitties, but that didn’t stop readers from gleefully lapping up news of ethereum’s blockchain congestion like kitten milk. We said:

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This Week in Bitcoin: Mania, Meltdown, and Futures FeverIt’s hard to say what price bitcoin reached midweek as it really depends on what exchange you were using, and indeed whether you could even access your usual exchange. Bitcoin hit $20,000 on Coinbase before the site – whose app topped the iOS charts at the height of the mania – then went down. Gdax also struggled, and there were weird goings on at Bitfinex. (What’s new?) We did our best to round up the best of the drama, including news of 200,000 unconfirmed transactions that caused the network to grind to a halt. No one was laughing at ethereum now – but no one was buying it either. Bitcoin’s giddy ascent had every single altcoin REKT and Coinbase pleading for calm.

While bitcoin traders were glued to the charts, we brought news of developments from all corners of the globe including South Korea banning futures trading and a gold mining company whose shares jumped 1,300% after switching to bitcoin. Elsewhere, in China we revealed how no less than 107 scamcoins are being investigated for, well, being scamcoins.

This Week in Bitcoin: Mania, Meltdown, and Futures Fever

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Fundstrat Global Advisors Create Bitcoin Indexes

Bitcoin bull and independent research boutique, Fundstrat, reveals its new five indexes to monitor cryptocurrencies. Aimed at institutional investors, FS Crypto FX indexes are the most recent and prominent speculation instruments and a first for Wall Street insiders.

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After bitcoin reached gold parity in Spring, highly cited Wall Street prophet Thomas Lee’s, A framework for valuing bitcoin as a substitute for gold, caught media fire.

In it, Mr. Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors (FGA), explicitly concluded “bitcoin’s value per unit could be $20,000 to $55,000 by 2022.”

Divination is nothing new in the cryptocurrency space, but Mr. Lee, former analyst for JPMorgan Chase, was the first well-known trader to dabble so flagrantly.

Fundstrat Global Advisors Create Bitcoin Indexes
Thomas Lee

Taking-on the standard for value, gold, was an equally gutsy move for a vested financial guru.

That bitcoin has since nearly doubled has only buttressed his legend.

Talk Meets Walk

Cryptoassets, essentially classifying cryptocurrencies as stand-alone equities or commodities, even basket-ing them like a mutual fund, are the financial sector’s latest attempt to mainstream digital currency.

Fundstrat Global Advisors Create Bitcoin Indexes
William Mougayar

Summer of this year saw Roger Bryan’s Digital Currency Index (DCI) become essentially an industry benchmark. It weights by price, taking an average of 30 digital currencies traded on Kraken and Bittrex. Listed currencies are determined by market capitalization, and recalculated every quarter (three months).

More recently, William Mougayar announced his eponymous High Growth Cryptoassets Index (WMX). His index uses “strategic selection” to place over one dozen currencies in order of weighted rank percentage.

Both DCI and WMX are available as products.

Thomas Lee Toe Dip

Fundstrat’s Mr. Lee continues to make headline howling predictions, asserting bitcoin’s trading volume could overtake that of Apple.

Daily trading of top cryptocurrencies is getting close to 4 billion USD, surprising many finance professionals and, again, aiding in Thomas Lee’s prophetic street cred.

Trading volume of the present sort could mean there is wide interest and relative excitement.

Due to the potential of both, FGA announced its own set of research indexes, FS Crypto FX. All five would measure the market’s viability and vibrancy over time.

Think of them as crypto’s answer to the S&P 500 (FGA’s indexes add up to over 600 digital currencies).

CNBC’s intrepid reporter, Evelyn Cheng, who covers Thomas Lee extensively, was able to get a breakdown of FGA indexes:

FS Crypto 10 — tracks the 10 largest and most liquid digital currencies including bitcoin, ethereum, ripple, litecoin, dash, IOTA and monero.

FS Crypto 40 — tracks the top 11 to 50 digital currencies by market value and liquidity including NEM, bitconnect and Lisk.

FS Crypto 250 — tracks the top 51 to 300 cryptocurrencies by market value and liquidity including BitcoinDark, Singular DTV and FirstCoin.

FS Crypto 300 — tracks the 300 largest digital currencies by market value and liquidity.

FS Crypto Aggregate — tracks the performance of 630 digital currencies.

For all his seeming bravado, this is but a toe dip for Mr. Lee. None of FGA’s indexes are purchasable.

More importantly, institutional investor service providers such as Mr. Lee’s company are an important first step for Wall Street to formally enter the bitcoin ecosystem in a big way.

Fundstrat Global Advisors Create Bitcoin Indexes

Localbitcoins Compensates Users by Selling Bitcoin Cash for BTC

The bitcoin exchange Localbitcoins is a business based in Helsinki, Finland, that offers a web portal for nearly every city worldwide where users can participate in over-the-counter bitcoin trades. The company was founded in 2012 and has since been a favorite trading vehicle for bitcoin proponents across the globe.

Since the hard fork that produced bitcoin cash, many individuals wondered if Localbitcoins would compensate people with BCH if they held bitcoin there before August 1. Some even talked of threatening the company with a lawsuit because Localbitcoins didn’t mention a plan for after the fork. According to the company, BCH will not be supported by the organization, but they have sold the BCH balances and have credited users with BTC.     

The startup details that the BCH held on Localbitcoins was sold and “credited to customers at its corresponding value.” All of the BCH funds left on the exchange were converted to bitcoin (BTC), and the company says open trades were also considered.

“Open trades that had any balance at the time were also taken into consideration, based on who received the Bitcoin after the trade was completed or closed,”explains Localbitcoins.

Bitcoin Cash Supporters Believe Localbitcoin’s Statements Were More Like “Trolling” Than an Announcement

Localbitcoins Compensates Users by Selling Bitcoin Cash for BTCBitcoin Cash supporters were not pleasedwith the startup’s announcement telling the public they up and sold people’s BCH funds without asking. Further, the blog post references the digital currency as “Bcash” numerous times throughout the blog post and many supporters viewed this as a taunt. According to BCH supporters, the entire announcement was very “troll-like” and condescending towards the fork.

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Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 08/30/2017 – Bullish Break and Pullback

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price recently surged to new all-time highs after a brief period of consolidation at the top of its range resistance.
  • Price is stalling around $4600 so bulls might need more energy before resuming the climb.
  • A pullback to the rising trend line and nearby area of interest could be enough to draw more buyers to the game.

Bitcoin price is exhibiting more bullish momentum but could use a quick pullback before going on another leg higher.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, which means that the rally is more likely to resume than to reverse. The short-term moving average is in line with the ascending trend line connecting the latest lows of bitcoin price action.

This also coincides with the area of interest or former resistance at the $4400 area. A larger pullback could last until the 200 SMA dynamic support near $4200, but a break below this area could spur more declines.

Stochastic is turning down from the overbought area so bitcoin price might follow suit as this indicates a pickup in selling pressure. A bit of bearish divergence can be seen since the oscillator made lower highs while price had higher highs. RSI is also on the move down to show the presence of bearish pressure.

A move below the rising trend line support could put bitcoin price on track towards testing the longer-term range support at $3800-4000. On the other hand, a break past the recent highs could trigger a climb to the $5000 major psychological barrier.

Market Factors

The rise in geopolitical tension between the US and North Korea has led to a boost in bitcoin price as cryptocurrencies are usually in demand in these scenarios. Traders typically move their funds out of traditional markets like stocks and commodities while seeking higher returns in alternative assets.

Meanwhile, the dollar is also under pressure on weak NFP expectations as this could completely douse hopes of another Fed interest rate hike later this year. On the other hand, an upbeat reading could boost dollar demand against bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 08/30/2017 – Bullish Break and Pullback

 

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